SPECIAL WARNING
General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
Weather Evolution Across Europe – Update of 23 June 2026
A remarkable weather pattern is currently developing across much of Western Europe. The combination of a broad high-pressure system extending from the British Isles into Central Europe and thermal low-pressure areas over the Iberian Peninsula is driving a surge of exceptionally hot continental air towards France, the Benelux countries, Germany, Switzerland and northern Italy.
This setup will maintain unusually high temperatures across large parts of Western Europe through Friday, with the most significant heat affecting France, the Benelux, southeastern England and Germany.
From Friday evening onwards, conditions are expected to become increasingly unstable. A thermal low moving towards the southern Benelux will favour the development of locally severe thunderstorms, particularly across France, the Alps, the southeastern Benelux and northwestern Germany.
During the weekend, especially on Sunday, an extension of the Azores High towards England and the North Sea will gradually alter the atmospheric circulation. A cooler northerly maritime airflow will then become established across our regions, bringing a drop in temperatures.
Early next week, a marked contrast will remain between high pressure extending from the Atlantic Ocean to southern Scandinavia and a broad thunderstorm-producing low-pressure area covering much of Germany as well as eastern and central France. Situated between these two systems, the Benelux will remain under a less warm northerly flow, although showers and thunderstorms may still occur, particularly in the eastern parts of the region.
Probable Weather Trend from 30 June to 6 July 2026
Update of 22 June 2026
After several days dominated by hot continental conditions, a change in the weather pattern now appears increasingly likely across Western Europe. The latest mid-tropospheric pressure anomaly analyses indicate a gradual weakening of the continental anticyclone, while a strengthening area of high pressure develops over the nearby Atlantic, southwest of Ireland and west of Brittany. At the same time, a low-pressure system is expected to become established over Scandinavia.
This evolving pattern would place our regions in a less hot, though still seasonably mild, airflow. Initially, winds from the south to southwest are expected to bring softer air along with some instability, resulting in scattered local showers. Later, the flow is likely to turn more westerly, allowing Atlantic disturbances to move across the region. Despite this transition, temperatures should remain generally mild for the season, with no significant cooling anticipated.
Forecasts for the next 48 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update 23-6-26
Belgium is entering an increasingly intense spell of hot weather.
Under the influence of dry and predominantly sunny conditions, no significant rainfall is expected anywhere in the country during the next 48 hours.
This Tuesday afternoon, sunshine will prevail after a few patches of high cloud. Temperatures will generally reach 30 to 31°C across most regions, while slightly lower values are expected over the Ardennes uplands. The evening and night will remain largely clear, leading to a very mild and locally warm summer night.
Wednesday will bring another step up in the heat. Sunshine will dominate from the morning onward, with only a few thin high clouds crossing the sky. During the afternoon, temperatures are forecast to climb to 32 to 37°C across the interior, while even the Higher Ardennes could see values up to 35°C. Coastal areas will remain somewhat cooler, around 30°C, thanks to the moderating influence of the North Sea.
Wednesday evening and the following night will stay exceptionally mild under clear skies. Minimum temperatures will often remain between 18 and 24°C across the lowlands, highlighting the remarkable nature of this late-June heat event.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update 23-6-26:
Exceptional heatwave expected to peak later this week
Belgium is set to experience one of the most remarkable heat episodes of the early summer season. On Thursday and Friday, the very warm air mass spreading northward from France is expected to reach its maximum intensity over the country. The national thermal index could rise to between +12 and +13, an extraordinary value corresponding to maximum temperatures ranging from 32 to 39°C across Belgium.
The nights are also expected to be particularly uncomfortable. Minimum temperatures should remain between 22 and 28°C in lowland and urban areas, allowing the heat to persist well into the night and early morning hours. Only some valleys in central and eastern Belgium are likely to experience cooler conditions, with lows between 15 and 21°C.
A change in the weather pattern is nevertheless expected from Sunday onward. The thermal index should gradually decline to between +1 and +4 during the first days of July. As a result, temperatures would return to more seasonal levels, with daytime highs generally ranging from 19 to 26°C and nighttime lows between 11 and 18°C.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 23 June 2026
Belgium is entering a remarkable summer spell
The latest BMCB multimodel analyses confirm the arrival of an exceptionally hot period across Belgium from Thursday onward. Sunshine will dominate and temperatures are expected to reach remarkable levels for late June.
Thursday 25 June will be fully summery, dry and sunny. Friday 26 and Saturday 27 June will become even hotter, with increasingly humid and oppressive conditions. Isolated heat thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, first locally inland and later mainly across the eastern half of the country.
Sunday 28 June will remain rather sultry despite a slight drop in temperatures. There will still be plenty of sunny spells, but also a risk of showers or thunderstorms, especially in the Ardennes. Monday 29 June should mark a more noticeable change: cloudier skies, further showers or thunderstorms inland, while western regions gradually enjoy brighter conditions and significantly lower temperatures.
The trend for early July points toward milder and more temperate weather, with a potentially wetter spell around Tuesday 30 June, followed by a return to generally dry or only weakly disturbed conditions. The first days of July should therefore be pleasant, without excessive heat and with generally limited rainfall.
In summary: a strong heat surge through the weekend, followed by a gradual cooling trend and an early July that looks mild, relatively dry and comfortable.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Weather Outlook – Update of 4 June 2026
The latest projections continue to indicate a relatively warm pattern across Western Europe during the final ten days of June. However, this trend may occasionally be interrupted by stronger Atlantic influences, creating thermal contrasts favourable to the development of locally intense thunderstorms.
For the period from 29 June to 5 July, forecast confidence decreases significantly. Although no dominant scenario has yet emerged, a slight cooling trend appears possible. A return to more Atlantic-driven conditions could bring a higher frequency of rain-bearing disturbances and thunderstorms, leading to a more changeable start to July.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Summer Outlook 2026 – Update of 17-6-26
Summer 2026 Outlook (Update 17-06-2026)
Towards a hot, drier and potentially stormy summer
Summer 2026 is shaping up within a generally above-average thermal regime, with strong regional contrasts across Europe.
A robust warm signal across southern Europe
Seasonal models consistently indicate above-average temperatures across the Mediterranean region. From Spain through Italy to southern France, warm spells are expected to be more frequent and persistent.
The Benelux region is likely to remain under a more Atlantic-influenced pattern, alternating between warm spells and cooler, more unsettled periods.
Global context: El Niño in an already warm climate
El Niño conditions are returning in the equatorial Pacific and may strengthen into autumn. While its direct impact on Europe is limited, it contributes to a globally warmer background state.
May 2026 ranked among the warmest Mays on record, with around 80% of land surfaces experiencing positive anomalies.
July: peak heat potential
July is likely to be the core of the meteorological summer, with repeated warm-air advections.
- Temperatures: +1.5 to +2.5 °C
- Rainfall: near average but highly uneven due to thunderstorms
Heatwave risk appears significant.
August: more instability, sustained warmth
Warm conditions persist but in a more unstable environment, favouring occasional significant thunderstorms, especially in central and eastern areas.
- Temperatures: +0.5 to +1.5 °C
- Rainfall: near to slightly above average locally
Summary
An early warm spell does not automatically imply a uniformly hot summer. However, a dry and warm June can enhance later heat intensity through soil moisture depletion and reduced evaporative cooling, potentially amplifying heat events during summer 2026.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)