Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 23 December 2025 | 8 AM
Sources: BMCB multi-models (ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN)
🌧️ Expected rainfall
No significant rainfall is expected over the next 36 hours. Accumulations will remain nil across the entire country, confirming a dry but frequently overcast weather pattern.
🌥️ Today: persistent grey skies, moderate cold
Morning
The day begins under a predominantly overcast sky. Occasional local breaks may develop, but no lasting improvement is anticipated.
Wind: easterly, with gusts of 15 to 35 km/h.
Afternoon
Cloud cover remains largely dominant, although brief sunny intervals may appear, particularly east of the Meuse.
Wind: variable or east to northeast, gusts of 30 to 40 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 6°C along the coast, 4 to 7°C inland, and 1 to 3°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Skies stay mostly overcast, with a few local clearings offering little change to the overall atmosphere.
Wind: variable or east to northeast, gusts of 35 to 55 km/h, slightly weaker in Hainaut and the Ardennes valleys.
Night
Broader clear spells will reach the Campine, the Antwerp region, and northern Flanders. Elsewhere, skies remain cloudy, though some breaks are possible.
Wind: variable or east to northeast, gusts of 30 to 50 km/h, increasing to 50–55 km/h along the coast.
Minimum temperatures: around 1°C at the coast, –1 to 0°C inland, and generally –4 to 0°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
🌤️ Tomorrow – Wednesday
Morning
Skies will alternate between cloudy spells and passing clear intervals, with more frequent sunshine over the provinces of Namur and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: east to northeast, gusts of 40 to 60 km/h.
Afternoon
Conditions will become noticeably brighter, with fairly sunny weather, despite the persistence of isolated cloud patches.
Wind: east to northeast, gusts of 40 to 60 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: close to 2°C along the coast, 0 to 3°C inland, and –1 to –3°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – Update – 23 December 2025 | 10 AM
The national thermal index, which turned negative on Tuesday, will continue its downward trend into distinctly wintry territory. The minimum, estimated at around –6, is expected to be reached on Christmas Day, under cold and largely dry conditions. Daytime temperatures will generally range between +1 and –5°C, while nighttime lows will fall between –1 and –7°C across much of the country.
The nights from Thursday into Friday, as well as those of the coming weekend, are likely to be clear and calm, creating favourable conditions for a sharp drop in temperatures in the Ardennes valleys. In these areas, minimum temperatures could plunge to between –8 and –13°C, highlighting a pronounced wintry character.
From 29 December onwards, a gradual recovery of the national index is expected. It should then fluctuate between 0 and –3, corresponding to daytime highs of 0 to 7°C on the milder days and –2 to +5°C during colder phases.
At night, minimum temperatures will generally range between –4 and +3°C. However, during clear and calm nights, temperatures in the Ardennes valleys may once again drop to around –5 to –7°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 23 December 2025 | 11 AM
A powerful high-pressure system of 1044 hPa, currently centered over southern Norway, is sending us from the east a continental air flow becoming increasingly dry and cold, originating from Poland and Belarus. This air will enhance the sense of chill during the holiday season.
From Christmas Day, the air mass will slowly shift toward a region between Scotland and Iceland (1041–1047 hPa), which it will reach by the end of the week and over the coming weekend, extending the period of dry and fairly cold air over our regions.
At the beginning of next week, the high-pressure system is expected to reposition slightly west of Scotland and Ireland (1039–1042 hPa). This configuration will favor the establishment of a north to northwest flow over the North Sea, bringing maritime air to our territories that is less cold but progressively more humid, potentially signaling the first signs of disturbances toward the end of the period.
Thus, the atmosphere, initially icy and dry, may evolve toward a more humid and unstable winter ambiance, gradually preparing the country for a transition to more unsettled weather after Christmas.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update –23 December 2025 | 13:00
Summary of the meteorological evolution – BMCB multi-model outlook
(operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
The festive period will begin under the influence of a pronounced and persistent cold spell, driven by a dry continental air mass. Sunshine will dominate during the first days, before more unsettled and seasonally typical conditions gradually attempt to return towards the New Year.
📅 Thursday 25 December
Christmas will be very cold but often bright. After a few residual clouds over southern Ardennes and the Gaume, sunshine will become widespread.
An east to north-easterly wind will remain noticeable, with strong gusts still possible early in the day.
- Precipitation: 0 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima –7 to –1°C | maxima –5 to +1°C
📅 Friday 26 December
The cold will persist, with sometimes severe frost, especially in Ardennes valleys. Dry and very sunny conditions will reinforce the wintry feel.
- Precipitation: 0 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima –7 to –1°C (down to –13/–8°C in Ardennes valleys) | maxima –2 to +4°C
📅 Saturday 27 December
Another cold but bright day is expected. During the following night, locally freezing fog may develop, particularly over Flanders, while cloud cover increases north of the Sambre–Meuse axis.
- Precipitation: 0 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima –6 to 0°C (–12/–7°C in Ardennes valleys) | maxima –2 to +4°C
📅 Sunday 28 December
Cold conditions will continue. Extensive low stratus will cover the north and west of the country, while Limburg and areas east of the Meuse remain sunnier.
- Precipitation: 0 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima –6 to 0°C (–12/–7°C in Ardennes valleys) | maxima –2 to +4°C
📅 Monday 29 December
Cloud cover will gradually increase. During the following night, light precipitation may return, falling as snow in the High Ardennes and as light rain elsewhere.
- Precipitation: 0 to 1 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima –6 to 0°C (–12/–7°C in Ardennes valleys) | maxima –2 to +4°C
🔎 Likely trend
📅 Tuesday 30 December
More humid and slightly less cold conditions will set in. Wintry precipitation remains possible over the High Ardennes.
- Precipitation: 1 to 2 L/m²
- Temperatures: –3 to +3°C | maxima 0 to 6°C
📅 Wednesday 31 December
Conditions become closer to seasonal norms, with generally wet weather.
- Precipitation: 2 to 5 L/m²
- Temperatures: –2 to +4°C | maxima 1 to 7°C
📅 Thursday 1 January
The New Year begins under mostly grey and damp conditions.
- Precipitation: 2 to 10 L/m²
- Temperatures: –2 to +4°C | maxima 1 to 7°C
📅 Friday 2 January
A more marked deterioration brings heavier precipitation, often wintry over higher ground.
- Precipitation: 10 to 20 L/m²
- Temperatures: –3 to +3°C | maxima 0 to 6°C
📅 Saturday 3 January
Cool and unsettled weather persists, with generally light precipitation.
- Precipitation: 3 to 4 L/m²
- Temperatures: –4 to +2°C | maxima –1 to +5°C
📅 Sunday 4 January
A damp and cool atmosphere dominates, with a continued risk of wintry precipitation over the Ardennes.
- Precipitation: 5 to 10 L/m²
- Temperatures: –4 to +2°C | maxima 0 to +6°C
📅 Monday 5 January
Seasonal, wet conditions continue, locally wintry over higher elevations.
- Precipitation: 10 to 15 L/m²
- Temperatures: –2 to +4°C | maxima 1 to 7°C
📅 Tuesday 6 January
Cool conditions persist, with further intermittent precipitation, sometimes falling as snow over the Ardennes.
- Precipitation: 3 to 5 L/m²
- Temperatures: –4 to +2°C | maxima –1 to +5°C
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Forecast anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
( charts )
Update – 23 December 2025 | 7 AM
As the turn of the year approaches, our regions are expected to come under the influence of a north to north-westerly flow, both unsettled and unstable, and noticeably cool for the season.
This pattern will result from a delicate atmospheric balance between, on the one hand, a retreating anticyclonic area over the Atlantic, extending south of Iceland and west of Scotland, and, on the other hand, a vast low-pressure system stretching from western Russia and eastern Scandinavia down to Italy and the southern Iberian Peninsula.
At a later stage, the return of high pressure from the northern Atlantic toward northern Scandinavia and large parts of Russia, combined with low-pressure systems tracking more frequently from the Canary Islands toward the Pyrenees, the Alps and the western Mediterranean basin, and at times as far as North Africa, could significantly reshape the atmospheric circulation.
The flow would then gradually shift from northerly to north-easterly, before turning east to north-east as January progresses, advecting continental air masses toward our regions. Under such conditions, temperatures are likely to remain persistently below seasonal averages, establishing a decidedly more wintry atmosphere across the country.
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METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update: 18 December 2025 – 7 p.m.
Weather trend – from 3 to 11 January 2026
The large anticyclone anchored over northern Europe is showing signs of weakening and is expected to gradually give way to a more unsettled, low-pressure-driven pattern. This transition would mark a significant change in weather conditions.
Initially, as milder and more humid air attempts to override still cold low-level air masses, one or two snowfall events at low elevations cannot be ruled out.
At this range, any detailed forecast remains uncertain: the exact nature of the precipitation will depend on subtle thermal balances, where differences of just a few tenths of a degree could determine whether precipitation falls as rain or snow.
Gradually, milder Atlantic air is likely to gain the upper hand, bringing temperatures back towards values closer to the seasonal average.
Week of 12 to 18 January 2026
The scenarios currently favoured point towards milder and wetter conditions. Successive weather fronts would affect large parts of the country.
In this context, temperatures would rise well above seasonal norms, creating a more autumnal than truly wintry atmosphere for mid-January.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
Late winter outlook 2026
January 2026: unsettled and generally mild
Temperatures
A nationwide temperature anomaly close to +1.0°C is expected. Disturbed oceanic flows will frequently bring mild conditions, punctuated by brief cold-air incursions.
The probability of temperatures near or above average is around 80%.
Precipitation
A slight rainfall surplus (+10%) is likely due to frequent Atlantic disturbances within a prevailing west to south-westerly flow.
January could therefore become the wettest month of the 2025–2026 winter.
Overall pattern
A dynamic Atlantic circulation would favour a steady succession of Atlantic weather systems.
February 2026: slightly drier, still mild
Temperatures
A temperature surplus of around +1.0°C is expected to persist. Southerly to south-easterly flows may dominate between Atlantic lows and more anticyclonic conditions over central Europe.
Overall mild conditions, with occasional colder continental spells.
Precipitation
A slight precipitation deficit (-10%) is expected as weather systems become less active under the influence of continental high pressure.
Overall pattern
An alternation between anticyclonic phases and weak disturbances arriving from the west or south.
Short cold and dry periods may occur in between.
March 2026: finally a seasonally normal month?
Temperatures
Values close to seasonal averages, alternating between colder spells and milder, more unstable periods.
Precipitation
Rainfall amounts generally close to climatological normals.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)