SPECIAL WARNING
General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
LIVE IMAGERY — CLOUDS • PRECIPITATION • TEMPERATURE • WIND
Synoptic Evolution over the Atlantic and Europe
Updated 29 October 2026
High pressure firmly in control: from mild continental air to a cooler autumn atmosphere
Western Europe is entering a period of weather largely dominated by extensive high-pressure systems. Although these will generally maintain settled and dry conditions, their gradual movements will progressively alter the origin and characteristics of the air masses affecting our regions.
A 1030 hPa anticyclone, currently centred over Germany, is slowly moving towards western Denmark while strengthening slightly to 1032 hPa. From Friday onwards, it will establish an easterly to north-easterly airflow, bringing relatively dry continental air that will remain pleasantly mild for the time of year.
During the weekend, however, this air mass will gradually become somewhat cooler and more humid in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Extensive areas of low stratus cloud may consequently develop, restricting sunshine across several regions despite the continuation of generally dry conditions.
From Monday, an even more powerful feature will take command of the European weather pattern: a substantial 1041 hPa anticyclone centred over Scotland. Its position will gradually turn the airflow towards the north-east and then north, temporarily allowing more humid maritime air from the eastern North Sea to spread across our regions.
As next week progresses, this extensive high-pressure system, with central pressure ranging between 1040 and 1038 hPa, will gradually extend its influence eastwards, stretching from Scotland across northern Germany towards Poland.
This evolving configuration will favour the return of a continental airflow, bringing somewhat drier but also cooler conditions, increasingly characteristic of the advancing autumn season.
In summary, high pressure will remain firmly in charge of Europe's weather, although its dominance will not necessarily guarantee abundant sunshine. Between lingering continental mildness, persistent maritime cloud and the gradual arrival of cooler air, autumn will increasingly reveal its true character.
Probable weather evolution over Europe Likely trend (based on mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns)
https://www.bmcb.be/trend-europe-europa/
Synoptic outlook for Europe from 4 to 9 November 2026
Updated 27 October 2026
Western and Central Europe look set to enter the first part of November under an atmospheric pattern favouring settled, predominantly dry and increasingly chilly conditions.
A powerful anticyclone, forecast to become established over Scotland around 3 November, is expected to maintain its influence across north-western Europe throughout the period, while its centre gradually shifts towards Iceland.
Meanwhile, an extensive low-pressure system is expected to develop north of the Black Sea and across southern Ukraine, subsequently strengthening its influence over eastern and south-eastern Europe as well as western Russia.
Between these two major pressure systems, a persistent northerly to north-easterly airflow should become established across much of Central and Western Europe, drawing in cool, locally rather cold air masses from southern Scandinavia and the eastern North Sea.
This synoptic pattern should therefore favour predominantly dry weather, with an increasingly noticeable chill and little or no significant precipitation. Where skies clear overnight and winds ease, conditions may also become favourable for the first frosts across several inland parts of the continent.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
https://www.bmcb.be/national-t2m-indicator/
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR BELGIUM
Updated 29 October 2026
An early taste of winter as November approaches
Following a relatively mild end to October, Belgium looks set to experience a gradual but noticeable drop in temperatures, heralding the arrival of late autumn and bringing the first hints of winter, particularly across the Ardennes.
The national thermal index, currently standing between +1 and +2, is expected to decline steadily, reaching 0 to –2 by 31 October and 1 November. Daytime temperatures will gradually fall from 11–15°C to around 9–13°C.
The cooling trend is likely to intensify between 2 and 8 November, with the thermal index ranging from –1 to –3. Maximum temperatures will generally remain between 5 and 12°C, while overnight lows will range from –3 to +6°C, depending on the region.
The most pronounced cold spell could affect the sheltered valleys of the Ardennes. From around 4–5 November, clear skies and light winds may favour strong radiative cooling, allowing temperatures to plunge locally to between –3 and –9°C. Some of the coldest valley bottoms could therefore experience quite severe overnight frosts.
A gradual moderation is nevertheless expected after 8 November, when the national thermal index may recover to 0 to +1. Daytime highs should then range from 6 to 13°C, with overnight lows between –1 and +7°C.
In short, November may open with a distinctly colder spell, bringing locally sharp overnight frosts to the Ardennes, before temperatures gradually return towards their seasonal averages.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
From mild autumn days to the first frosts of November
Update: 28 October 2026 — BMCB Multi-Model Forecast (ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
Following a relatively mild end to October, with occasional lengthy sunny spells, Belgium is heading towards a more distinctly autumnal weather pattern. Sunshine and cloud will initially alternate, while morning fog and low stratus may prove stubborn in places. A noticeable drop in temperatures is expected from the All Saints' weekend onwards.
The first week of November looks set to remain largely dry but distinctly cooler, with a temporarily freshening north-easterly wind adding to the chill. Clear nights will favour the return of local frost, occasionally moderate in the sheltered valleys of the Ardennes, while daytime conditions will alternate between lingering grey skies and brighter intervals.
From 9 November onwards, milder air may gradually return, accompanied by occasional rain or showers.
SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Weather outlook for the next 3–4 weeks
Updated on 16 October 2026
Week of 2–8 November: Atlantic rain returns in force
The development of a zonal Atlantic flow bringing mild, moist air appears increasingly likely. Under this pattern, Atlantic weather systems could move across the country in succession, with periods of sometimes heavy rain as successive fronts pass through.
This oceanic airflow would also bring notably mild temperatures, both during the morning and throughout the afternoon. At present, there are no clear signs of an early-season cold spell. Instead, conditions are expected to remain predominantly mild and damp, typical of a persistent Atlantic influence.
Week of 9–15 November: persistently mild and wet conditions
The leading scenario remains that of a sustained zonal Atlantic flow, bringing successive bands of rain across the country while maintaining temperatures well above the levels normally expected for the time of year.
If this pattern becomes established, rainfall could become more regular again following the drier spells experienced previously.
This medium-range outlook will, of course, need to be confirmed or revised in subsequent updates as the forecast period draws closer.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 25-10-26
November 2026: persistent mildness, with less rainfall than previously expected
Synoptic background: High-pressure conditions may become more frequent than initially anticipated, restricting the passage of Atlantic weather systems. Overall, conditions are expected to remain mild, with alternating settled spells and more unsettled episodes, particularly during the second half of the month.
Temperatures: approximately 1.5°C above the seasonal average, indicating a well-established signal for milder-than-normal conditions. Brief cooler interludes remain possible, but there is currently little indication of any prolonged cold spell.
Precipitation: totals close to the seasonal average. This represents a shift towards a less unsettled and less rainfall-dominated November than previously forecast, without any significant signal for unusually dry conditions.
December 2026: exceptionally mild and wetter than average
Synoptic background: A likely strengthening of the Atlantic circulation would favour the passage of successive weather systems, accompanied by predominantly south-westerly winds bringing mild, moisture-laden maritime air.
Temperatures: approximately 2°C above the seasonal average, suggesting even more pronounced mildness than in November, despite the possibility of occasional short-lived cooler spells.
Precipitation: around 14% above average, with regular spells of rain associated with passing Atlantic disturbances.
January 2027: less pronounced mildness, with increasing uncertainty
Synoptic background: Atmospheric circulation patterns may become more variable, allowing occasional periods of high pressure as well as temporary incursions of colder air.
Temperatures: approximately 1°C above the seasonal average. A milder-than-normal scenario remains the most likely outcome, although forecast confidence decreases considerably at this longer lead time.
Precipitation: around 11% above average, suggesting a modest rainfall surplus, although the signal is less pronounced than in December.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)