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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
Synoptic Outlook for Europe – Update of 5 August 2026
On Thursday, a 1027 hPa anticyclone centred west of the English Channel will gradually extend its influence before moving across the southern North Sea towards north-western Germany on Friday.
This broad area of high pressure will stabilise the maritime air mass over Belgium and neighbouring countries, bringing largely sunny conditions with temperatures close to the seasonal average—pleasant rather than excessively warm.
During the weekend, the high will migrate towards the Baltic States, gradually turning the airflow to the south-east. As a result, increasingly warm and exceptionally dry continental air will spread across the region on Saturday. This summery spell will, however, be short-lived. On Sunday, a cold front accompanied by rain and thunderstorms will sweep through, bringing this brief warm episode to an end.
In its wake, cooler maritime air from the English Channel will return, while a new 1024 hPa anticyclone develops over Western Europe. As this high shifts towards the southern Baltic Sea early next week, it will advect very warm air along its western flank, first from the Alps and subsequently from southern France.
All indications therefore point to the development of a fresh heatwave around the middle of next week.
Probable weather evolution over Europe Likely trend (based on mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns)
https://www.bmcb.be/trend-europe-europa/
Update – 4 August 2026
European Synoptic Outlook: 12–18 August 2026
The latest ensemble guidance continues to support the establishment of a broad area of high pressure extending from the eastern Atlantic into Central Europe between 12 and 14 August. This pattern is expected to bring predominantly sunny, dry and stable conditions, with warm to locally very hot air spreading across our region.
This spell of settled summer weather is, however, likely to end during the weekend of 15–16 August. Increasing low-pressure activity over southern Scandinavia and the North Sea is expected to drive an active cold front across Western Europe.
In its wake, a more unsettled and unstable Atlantic airflow should become established, bringing noticeably cooler air and temperatures returning to values close to the seasonal average.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Thermal Outlook – Update of 5 August 2026
Following a steady decline, Belgium's national thermal index is expected to reach its lowest point by the end of the week, falling to around -1 to 0, close to or slightly below the seasonal average. Overnight temperatures will generally range between 9 and 15°C, although 2 to 8°C remains possible in some valleys south of the Sambre-Meuse axis. Daytime highs will vary between 20 and 27°C, depending on location.
This cooler spell is, however, expected to be short-lived. From next weekend onwards, a much warmer air mass will spread across the country, lifting the thermal index to around +3 to +5 and bringing maximum temperatures of 25 to 34°C.
The warming trend is then forecast to intensify further, with a pronounced heat peak around 12–13 August. At that stage, the thermal index could climb to +7 to +8, corresponding to widespread highs of 30 to 36°C, while overnight temperatures are expected to remain between 16 and 24°C, producing locally tropical nights.
Beyond 17 August, the BMCB multimodel suggests a significant moderation, with the thermal index easing back to around +1 to +2, consistent with daytime temperatures returning to a more comfortable 19 to 26°C.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 4 August 2026
Weather outlook: A welcome breather before the heat returns
According to the BMCB Multi-Model guidance, combining operational models with ICON, AIFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, Belgium is set to experience a two-stage weather pattern over the coming days.
Following the recent spell of sustained summer heat, Wednesday will usher in noticeably fresher and more comfortable conditions as a south-westerly airflow becomes established. Sunshine and cloud will alternate, with only a few isolated showers developing inland during the afternoon, while coastal areas should enjoy increasingly sunny skies. South-westerly winds will be quite brisk, with gusts reaching 45 to 55 km/h.
Thursday and Friday will extend this quieter interlude, bringing dry weather, generous sunshine and temperatures close to seasonal averages. By Saturday, a gradual warming trend will already be underway beneath predominantly sunny skies.
Sunday is expected to bring a marked change. Warmer and more humid air will encourage the development of rain, showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally significant rainfall. Conditions should improve quickly again on Monday, with dry, increasingly sunny weather returning, although temperatures will remain distinctly warm under a moderate west to north-westerly breeze.
Likely trend from 11 to 18 August
The opening days of the period are expected to remain dry, sunny and typically summery, while temperatures continue a gradual upward trend.
From Thursday 13 August onwards, the heat is likely to intensify further, with isolated heat thunderstorms developing over inland areas late in the day. This pattern may persist through the weekend of 15 August, when warm and increasingly humid conditions could trigger more widespread thunderstorms, some of them locally heavy.
Early the following week, a gradual easing of the heat appears increasingly likely. Temperatures should return to more moderate levels as the weather becomes more changeable, with showers and occasional thunderstorms.
Overall, current guidance continues to favour an August maintaining a distinctly summery character, alternating between prolonged sunny spells and more active thundery interludes.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Weather Outlook – Update of 30 July 2026
14–23 August: A possible renewed spell of heat before thunderstorms return
The latest forecasts suggest the temporary return of a south-westerly airflow capable of transporting warmer air across our regions. This late-summer resurgence could lead to a noticeable rise in temperatures, with daytime highs approaching or locally exceeding 30°C during the warmest days.
Such warmth, however, may prove short-lived. As is often the case towards the end of summer, when Atlantic air masses attempt to displace continental heat, a more unstable pattern could quickly emerge. Thunderstorms, potentially vigorous in places, may then develop and bring a sometimes abrupt drop in temperatures.
24–31 August: Towards a more contrasted weather pattern?
At this range, forecast scenarios remain markedly divergent. Some model solutions favour the return of a more active Atlantic regime, with low-pressure systems bringing changeable conditions, showers and occasional thunderstorms. Others continue to indicate a stronger anticyclonic influence, allowing the warmth to persist for longer.
Given these uncertainties, the most plausible outcome at present is a more contrasted pattern, alternating between warm spells and unsettled interludes, a configuration that is often characteristic of the closing stages of summer.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Summer 2026: Persistent Heat Expected Across the Benelux
Update – 11-7-26
The atmosphere appears to have settled into a remarkably persistent pattern. Since late spring, the same large-scale weather features have repeatedly shaped conditions across Western Europe: strong areas of high pressure anchored over the continent, while cut-off low-pressure systems west of the Iberian Peninsula act as an efficient heat pump. This configuration repeatedly draws very warm air northwards, producing prolonged dry spells and recurring heatwaves. August may briefly interrupt this pattern with a few thundery outbreaks, but without fundamentally changing the prevailing weather regime.
Globally, the return of El Niño deserves close attention. Although its direct influence on the weather over the Benelux remains relatively limited during summer, it reinforces an already exceptionally warm global climate background. Across our region, however, the dominant drivers continue to be persistent high pressure, increasingly dry soils and repeated intrusions of subtropical air.
August is expected to remain very warm, with temperatures averaging around 1.5°C above normal. The risk of additional heatwaves remains significant, although more frequent thunderstorms could provide temporary relief. Rainfall is likely to be highly uneven, however, and thunderstorms alone are unlikely to alleviate the ongoing drought, as intense downpours tend to run off rapidly rather than replenish deep soil moisture.
September may still feel like an extension of summer. While forecast confidence naturally decreases at longer lead times, high pressure is expected to retain a strong influence across Europe, keeping temperatures close to 2°C above the seasonal average. Atlantic disturbances may occasionally cross the region, but they are unlikely to trigger a lasting change in the overall weather pattern. Rainfall is expected to be close to seasonal norms.
October is currently projected to be relatively dry under the continued influence of high pressure across Western and Northern Europe. Temperatures should ease compared with the previous two months but are still expected to remain 0.5 to 1°C above average. Days may remain pleasantly mild, while clear nights allow for noticeably cooler conditions. Rainfall could once again end up below normal across much of the country, extending the ongoing dry spell into autumn.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)