SPECIAL WARNING
Forecasts for the next 48 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update 3 June 2026
Belgium: Unsettled and Wet Conditions
Over the next 48 hours, rainfall amounts will generally remain modest but frequent, with totals mostly ranging between 4 and 13 l/m². The highest accumulations are expected south of the Sambre–Meuse valley, where some locations could locally receive around 20 l/m².
On Wednesday, skies will remain predominantly cloudy with occasional brighter intervals. Showers will continue to affect several regions, particularly eastern parts of the country and areas near the Meuse Valley. Temperatures will reach 17 to 20°C across most regions, although the Ardennes will remain cooler with highs of 13 to 16°C. A moderate to fairly strong south-westerly wind will persist.
The following night will remain largely overcast with scattered showers continuing, while minimum temperatures stay relatively mild for the season.
On Thursday, a new unstable weather system will cross the country. The morning will be mostly cloudy with showers, some of which may become thundery. During the afternoon, conditions will remain highly changeable, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, locally accompanied by thunderstorms, especially east of the Scheldt. South-westerly winds will strengthen noticeably, with gusts exceeding 60 km/h in western parts of the country.
A gradual improvement is expected during the evening as more widespread clear spells develop. Thursday night into Friday should then become calmer and generally dry beneath high cloud, heralding a transition towards more settled weather conditions.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Thermal Trend – Update of 3 June 2026
Following several days of a downward trend, the Belgian national thermal index is expected to reach its lowest point around 5–6 June, with values ranging between -1 and -2. This will result in maximum temperatures generally ranging from 12 to 19°C across the country.
Thereafter, a gradual recovery is anticipated. The thermal index is forecast to rise progressively towards values between +1 and +4 after 11 June. This development should allow milder conditions to return, with daytime highs mostly between 18 and 25°C and locally reaching 21 to 28°C on the warmest days.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
Weather Outlook – Update of 3 June 2026
Following the passage of an active depression centred over north-eastern Scotland, the Benelux countries will remain under the influence of cool and unsettled maritime air through the end of the week. A brief improvement is expected on Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure temporarily builds across the region.
By Saturday, a new Atlantic depression will move across the British Isles, bringing further spells of rain and unsettled conditions. On Sunday, milder and more stable maritime air is expected to spread in, before a weak frontal system crosses the region on Monday.
The outlook for the first half of next week appears more encouraging, with high pressure strengthening between the Bay of Biscay and north-western France. This pattern should promote more settled weather accompanied by a gradual rise in temperatures.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather outlook: unsettled start to June followed by gradual improvement
According to the BMCB multi-model analysis, the first half of June is expected to be influenced by an active Atlantic circulation, bringing frequently changeable weather across Belgium.
Thursday is likely to be the most unsettled day of the period, with widespread rain or showers, locally thundery, accompanied by strong winds. From Friday and through the weekend, rainfall should become less frequent, with sunny intervals developing at times, although temperatures will remain rather cool for the season.
Early next week, weak disturbances are still expected to bring occasional cloud and patchy rain, while temperatures remain slightly below average. Westerly to south-westerly winds will continue to be noticeable on many days.
From 9 June onwards, forecasting signals increasingly favour a gradual improvement. Rainfall is expected to become lighter and more scattered, while dry spells grow more frequent. Although a few weak disturbances may still pass through, the overall trend points towards more settled and progressively milder conditions.
The second half of the period could therefore bring more pleasant weather, with temperatures returning to seasonal norms or even slightly above average, while rainfall remains generally limited.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Weather Trend – Update of 29 May 2026
Mid to late June: warm summer conditions with increasing risk of thunderstorms
Week 15–21 June: warm and at times humid summer weather
Warm conditions could persist over the region under a dominant southwesterly flow. The atmosphere is expected to become increasingly humid and unstable, favouring the development of thunderstorms, particularly inland.
- Temperatures: +1.5 to +3°C above average, frequently 25–30°C across northern areas
- Precipitation: highly uneven distribution, generally low outside thunderstorm activity
Week 22–28 June: continued warmth but growing uncertainty
The warm pattern may persist towards the end of June, with renewed potential for hot spells, especially inland. However, more Atlantic-influenced scenarios remain possible.
- Temperatures: +1 to +2°C above average, generally 24–30°C
- Precipitation: near normal to slightly below average, mainly in the form of thunderstorms
Overall outlook: warm but increasingly uncertain
The second half of June is expected to remain predominantly warm, with further potential for heat episodes. However, forecast confidence decreases after mid-month, particularly regarding the intensity of heat and thunderstorm activity.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Summer Outlook 2026 – Update of 13 May
As summer 2026 approaches, seasonal forecasting models continue to point towards above-average temperatures across Europe. However, the latest analyses have slightly moderated the intensity of the anticipated heat, particularly over Western Europe. While the risk of a notably warm summer remains firmly in place, the prospect of a persistently scorching and continuously heatwave-dominated season is no longer regarded as certain.
Several atmospheric drivers may still significantly influence the evolution of the season, including the rapid transition towards an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, fluctuations in Atlantic circulation patterns, and the recent return of rainfall that has helped ease the spring surface drought. After an exceptionally dry and windy April, May is already showing a shift towards more frequent rain and thunderstorm activity.
Within this more contrasted pattern, summer 2026 could alternate between very warm spells, at times severe thunderstorms, and cooler north-westerly incursions. June may emerge as the hottest month of the season, driven by recurrent subtropical warm-air surges linked to low-pressure systems near the Iberian Peninsula. July is still expected to bring significant heat potential, although accompanied by active thunderstorm outbreaks capable of delivering temporary cooling. August, meanwhile, could evolve towards a heavier, more unstable and wetter atmosphere, with locally abundant rainfall and generally more unsettled conditions.
Overall, the broad signal for a warmer-than-average European summer remains in place, although substantial uncertainty persists regarding the eventual intensity of the heat and the frequency of thunderstorm episodes.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)