SPECIAL WARNING
Forecasts for the next 42 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update of 14 May 2026
A particularly unstable air mass continues to affect Belgium, bringing repeated showers, at times heavy and locally thundery. Over the next 42 hours, rainfall totals are expected to range between 3 and 12 L/m² north of the Scheldt, 4 to 16 L/m² between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse axis, and up to 17 L/m² across southern parts of the country.
Thursday will remain dominated by mostly cloudy to overcast skies, interrupted by temporary brighter spells but also by frequent showers, some of which may be accompanied by small hail. The most unsettled conditions are expected across Flanders and south of the Sambre-Meuse corridor. During the evening and overnight, broader clear spells will gradually develop across western and north-western areas, while showers are likely to persist near the coast and over the Ardennes highlands.
Temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages, with daytime highs generally limited to 10 to 12°C, only 8 to 9°C across the High Ardennes, and around 11°C along the coast. Overnight temperatures will become particularly chilly in some Ardennes valleys, where minima close to freezing, and locally slightly below 0°C, are possible.
Friday will remain cool and changeable under a moderate to fairly brisk north-westerly airflow. Further showers are expected to move across the country, especially over northern and western areas, before conditions gradually improve during the evening with increasing sunny intervals over Flanders, Brabant and western Hainaut.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Thermal Trend – Update of 13 May 2026
The Belgian national thermal index will remain in negative territory until 18 May, fluctuating between -3 and -6. As a result, maximum temperatures will stay rather cool, ranging from 7 to 14°C on the coldest days, and from 11 to 18°C during the milder intervals expected early next week.
Thereafter, a marked rise in the thermal index is anticipated, with a gradual return to positive values between +2 and +4 from mid next week onwards. This would usher in a milder regime, with daytime temperatures generally ranging between 17 and 24°C, and locally warmer peaks reaching 20 to 27°C on the most favourable days.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
Update of 14 May 2026 – Synoptic Analysis
A broad 994 hPa depression centred on Friday near the south-west coast of Norway will continue to direct a cold and unstable polar flow towards Western Europe and the Benelux countries. As a result, conditions are expected to remain generally cool, unsettled and occasionally showery.
Instability should nevertheless ease somewhat at the start of the weekend under the temporary influence of a ridge extending from France into Germany. However, this quieter spell will be short-lived, as an Atlantic disturbance simultaneously approaches the British Isles before crossing our country on Sunday evening and during the following night.
Behind this disturbance, pressure is forecast to rise significantly with the development of an anticyclonic area stretching from France to southern Scandinavia, with central pressures around 1021 to 1022 hPa. This high-pressure system is then expected to strengthen further over southern Scandinavia early next week, where pressures may reach around 1030 hPa.
This evolution will gradually promote increasingly stable, dry and significantly milder conditions. From the middle of next week onwards, our regions are likely to come under the influence of a persistently stable and remarkably mild north-easterly flow.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Summary – Update of 13 May 2026
According to the latest BMCB multimodel projections, Belgium will remain under the influence of a cool and unsettled weather pattern until early next week. After a few temporary brighter spells, several disturbances are expected to cross the country between Friday and Monday, bringing generally light to moderate rainfall and often heavily clouded skies. The driest conditions are likely at times across the southern Ardennes and southern Belgian Luxembourg, where precipitation should remain more limited.
Temperatures will retain an unusually autumnal character for the season, with conditions frequently feeling cool or even cold despite some more generous sunny intervals, particularly over the western parts of the country during the weekend.
From the middle of next week onwards, however, a gradual improvement appears increasingly likely. Rainfall should become less frequent and mostly insignificant, while milder air progressively spreads across the region. Between 22 and 27 May, the leading scenarios favour generally dry, settled and at times very mild conditions, signalling a more decisive return of spring-like weather across much of the country.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
ALL Maps
Weather Update – 12 May 2026
Outlook for the period from 25 May to 1 June
The latest projections based on the analysis of tropospheric anomalies suggest that, during the period under review, high-pressure systems are likely to establish themselves over the North Atlantic and the central Mediterranean Basin. In contrast, a broad low-pressure area is expected to persist across Scandinavia and western Russia.
Within this synoptic pattern, our regions would generally remain under the influence of a south to south-westerly airflow. Temperatures are therefore expected to stay close to, or slightly above, seasonal averages, without excessive heat. Rainfall totals, meanwhile, are likely to remain slightly below normal.
Across Europe as a whole, the most pronounced positive temperature anomalies would affect the southern half of the continent, notably Spain, southern France, southern Germany, Italy and much of the Balkans. Above-average precipitation is expected mainly over northern and western Scandinavia as well as the south-western Iberian Peninsula.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Weather Trend – Update of 8 May 2026
Week of 25–31 May: warmer conditions with a growing thunderstorm risk
The final week of May is expected to bring a more contrasted weather pattern, alternating between warm air surges and Atlantic disturbances.
The atmosphere may at times become heavy and unstable, favouring the development of thunderstorms, particularly across inland areas. Despite this variability, temperatures are likely to remain frequently above seasonal averages, with anomalies around +2 to +3°C.
Week of 1–7 June: towards warmer and sunnier weather
Long-range guidance continues to point towards a generally warm and often sunny start to June, under a more pronounced subtropical influence.
Conditions could become increasingly summery across many regions, although the risk of localised thunderstorms would persist, reflecting an atmosphere that remains rather dynamic. Temperatures should generally stay above normal, by around +2 to +3°C.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Summer Outlook 2026 – Update of 13 May
As summer 2026 approaches, seasonal forecasting models continue to point towards above-average temperatures across Europe. However, the latest analyses have slightly moderated the intensity of the anticipated heat, particularly over Western Europe. While the risk of a notably warm summer remains firmly in place, the prospect of a persistently scorching and continuously heatwave-dominated season is no longer regarded as certain.
Several atmospheric drivers may still significantly influence the evolution of the season, including the rapid transition towards an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, fluctuations in Atlantic circulation patterns, and the recent return of rainfall that has helped ease the spring surface drought. After an exceptionally dry and windy April, May is already showing a shift towards more frequent rain and thunderstorm activity.
Within this more contrasted pattern, summer 2026 could alternate between very warm spells, at times severe thunderstorms, and cooler north-westerly incursions. June may emerge as the hottest month of the season, driven by recurrent subtropical warm-air surges linked to low-pressure systems near the Iberian Peninsula. July is still expected to bring significant heat potential, although accompanied by active thunderstorm outbreaks capable of delivering temporary cooling. August, meanwhile, could evolve towards a heavier, more unstable and wetter atmosphere, with locally abundant rainfall and generally more unsettled conditions.
Overall, the broad signal for a warmer-than-average European summer remains in place, although substantial uncertainty persists regarding the eventual intensity of the heat and the frequency of thunderstorm episodes.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)